Oxford Economics Election Model Predicts A Landslide November Victory — For Joe Biden

(TheFreedomFlag.com)- President Donald Trump is going to lose November’s election by a landslide if the economy doesn’t improve quickly.
That’s the prediction of an Oxford Economics election model that was released Wednesday. The model predicted a “historic defeat” for Trump, who once could count on the economy as a top political asset. Now, though, with the coronavirus pandemic raging on, it has flipped to being one of his largest weaknesses.
The Oxford Economics model uses only financial measures to forecast November’s election results — taking disposable income, inflation and unemployment into account. With those metrics, the model predicts Trump will win only 35% of the popular vote. Before the coronavirus outbreak, the same model predicted he would capture roughly 55% of the popular vote.
If these numbers hold true, it would mark the worst poll results for an incumbent president in more than 100 years.
The report read, in part:
“It would take nothing short of an economic miracle for pocketbooks to favor Trump.” It added that the economy would be a “nearly insurmountable obstacle for Trump come November.”
While the Oxford Economics poll uses only economic data, it has correctly predicted the outcome of the popular vote in every presidential election since 1948 except for two — in 1968 and 1976.
A president doesn’t need to win the popular vote to win the election, of course, and two candidates in that time period did exactly that — George W. Bush in 2000 and Trump himself in 2016.
Trump captured 306 electoral votes that year compared to Democrat Hillary Clinton’s 232. Trump may have lost the popular vote to Clinton in 2016, but it wasn’t by a huge margin. Clinton won 48% of the popular vote compared to Trump’s 45.9%.
When Bush won the 2000 election with 271 electoral votes compared to Democrat Al Gore’s 266, his popular election tally was also pretty close to his competitor’s Gore won 48.38% of the popular vote that year compared to Bush’s 47.87%.
The point of all this is that while Trump is living proof that a president can lose the popular vote and still win the election, it would be very hard to imagine him doing so if he only wins 35% of the popular vote.
There are still almost six months until Election Day, however, and a lot can change in that time. The Oxford model made its predictions assuming that the economy will still be in bad shape come the fall. That includes an unemployment rate above 13%, per capita incomes down almost 6% year-over-year and either falling prices or deflation.
In a separate-but-related model that Oxford Economics developed last year, Trump is also expected to lose the electoral vote badly, by a count of 328-210. The model predicts all seven of the key battleground states will flip to the Democrats — Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, North Carolina and Ohio.
According to the report:
“We would expect these states to experience significant economic contractions and traumatic job losses that would likely swing pocketbook vote.”